演講日期：2022年12月9日（五）
演講地點：國立臺灣大學二號館生物多樣性研究中心演講廳
演講時間：13:30~15:30（演講時長40分鐘並附20分鐘討論時間）
演講資訊：
1. 模擬氣候變遷下發生物種入侵時採取之緊急措施
Emergent applications in modeling biological invasions in a changing climate
演講者：Hsiao-Hsuan Wang, PhD
Senior Research Scientist ; Ecological Systems Laboratory, Department of Ecology and Conservation Biology ; Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843 ; Editor-in-Chief, Ecological Modelling (Elsevier) ; Associate Editor, Biological Invasions (Springer) ; Associate Editor, Plant Ecology (Springer)
摘要：
Biological invasions and climate change amplify each other’s effects on ecosystems. In response to the need to address critical management problems of increasing breadth and complexity, development of the theoretical framework and associated methodologies for studying the interaction of biological invasions and climate change has emerged as a major research area in ecology. Species distribution models (SDMs) are now a widely applied tool. SDMs use relationship between species occurrence and environmental conditions to predict the potential distribution of a species across an area of interest. However, the static and correlative approach represents neither the temporal dynamics of movement nor the processes responsible for movement that are included in process-based dynamic models. On the other hand, individual- or agent-based, spatially-explicit models (IBSEMs or ABSEMs) are a popular method for investigating biological spread/movement processes. However, the spatial variation of habitat suitability in IBSEMs/ABSEMs is often either ignored or represented on a categorical scale only which does not represent the continually varying distribution of habitat conditions across the landscape. Hence, the combination of SDMs and IBSEMs/ABSEMs into hybrid models seems to offer an appropriate framework for simulating a focal species spread/movement as both dispersal- and habitat-driven. Here, drawing on extensive datasets compiled by the U.S. Forest Service, I integrated SDMs within an ABSEM framework to predict potential range expansion of two invasive plants, Chinese and European privets and Chinese tallow trees, and the associated increase in economic loss and crown fire risk over the next two decades in forestlands of the southeastern US.
2. 歷史上的後代檢定資料有助於解決當前林業面臨的環境挑戰
Historical progeny test data help address current environmental challenges in forestry
演講者：Tomasz E. Koralewski, PhD
Ecological Systems Laboratory, Department of Ecology and Conservation Biology ; Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843
摘要：
Weather conditions and their variability have a major impact on growth and survival of trees. Consequently, climate is among the major factors that shape evolutionary adaptations in tree populations. Given long-term climate projections, forecasting family performance under future conditions has been considered an important component in the development of seed movement guidelines. Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) is an important forest tree species in the southern United States, both commercially and as a part of the ecosystem. Historical loblolly pine progeny test data from the western part of the species range were used to develop a model to help delineate deployment zones for the species. The developed model, termed Categorical Universal Response Function, assigns loblolly pine family performance projected under various climate conditions to five performance categories (from “very poor” to “very good”). Given site-specific conditions and local knowledge, the model can be used to support procurement and deployment decisions.